Water in the Lower Mantle as a Data-Lineage Problem

How should indirect signals be joined without erasing their separate uncertainties? This review answers by treating convergent evidence as a property of a sociotechnical workflow rather than a feature that can be read from average accuracy. The focal setting is high-pressure synthesis, diffraction, and spectroscopy, where a plausible conclusion may depend on an unrecorded stress state, preprocessing choice, or alternative structural interpretation. Evidence from the assigned publications is synthesized with foundational studies of calibration, distribution shift, causal structure, and responsible deployment. Four requirements follow: preserve the lineage of instrument traces, diffraction and spectroscopy products, simulation outputs, laboratory records, and analysis repositories; measure stability across relevant perturbations; connect confidence to a specific action; and maintain a route for human challenge and correction. The framework distinguishes descriptive performance from decision utility and separates uncertainty about the world from uncertainty created by the model and its evaluator. It also shows why faster inference or richer reasoning is valuable only when it improves a defined decision under a transparent resource budget. The article is a literature review and research agenda, not a report of a newly completed trial.

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